An Approach to Online Reliability Evaluation and Prediction of Mechanical Transmission Components

New development trends in electronic operating data logging systems enable classification, recording and storage of load spectrums of mechanical transmission components during usage. Based on this fact, the application of online reliability evaluation and reliability prediction procedures are presented. Different methods are considered to calculate reliability, depending on actual load spectrum and a Wohler curve. The prediction of a reliability trend is analyzed by the application of time series models. For this purpose, exponential smoothing model, regression model, and the ARIMA model are considered to evaluate data and predict an decreasing reliability trends during usage.